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Forecasting the level of saturation of e-business in Poland considering the number of existing e-enterprises

Mirosław Moroz, Barbara Fura

E-business sector in Poland is dynamically growing since its inception in the mid-90s of the 20th century. The number of new e-shops, portals or online applications, as well as turnovers is increasing every year. As a consequence, in 2013, e-commerce sector generated over 5% of Polish GDP. However, since such growth will not last endlessly, a research problem aroused . The purpose of this paper is to estimate a the number of companies enough to saturate this sector, as well as to forecast the maximum time needed to gain this status. A logistic regression model was used to measure the amount of enterprises within a moment of e-business market saturation, and duration needed to reach its peak.

Conducted research are indicating that potential entrepreneurs should not delay the launch of their e-business. For existing businesses the consequences of the sector saturation should lead to an increase in professional management of e-business and/or an increase in the scale of such activity.

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AUTHORS

Mirosław Moroz

Wroclaw University of Economics

Barbara Fura

University of Rzeszów

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DOI: 10.15219/em65.1244

The article is in the printed version on pages 72-77.

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